Model | Implied Forecast | Weight | |
---|---|---|---|
Conservative Supreme Court favors executive power | 36% | ||
Weighting reasoning: Assigning lower weight because this forecast refers to power of the Executive Branch, not necessarily power of the President. None of the instances provided are about a former leader in the executive branch. | |||
Supreme Court cases set new executive privilege precedents | 19% | ||
Weighting reasoning: This forecast is most central to the issue at hand. The few instances that affirm the condition are from over 50 years ago: 1867, 1936, and 1974 | |||
Supreme Court favors immunity for former official | 65% | ||
Weighting reasoning: This forecast carries less weight because Trump v. United States is first of its kind; There has never been a case involving a former official as high-ranking as former President of the United States | |||
Supreme Court cases where lower court ruling was reversed, rejected, or remanded | 66% | ||
Weighting reasoning: This is the most basic base rate and should be interpreted as a starting point; it captures anything missing from more narrow base rates and makes up for instances where more narrow reference classes may account for details that are irrelevant to forecasted question. | |||
Conservative-majority Supreme Court disrupts status quo | 64% | ||
Weighting reasoning: Assigning a low weight because the more specific version of this forecast "Supreme Court cases set new executive privilege precedents" underscores that while conservative Courts have a tendency to disrupt the status quo, this is not the case for matters of executive privilege. | |||
Historical Forecast: | N/A |
Conservative Supreme Court favors executive power
Forecast: 36%
Weight: 0.04
Supreme Court cases set new executive privilege precedents
Forecast: 19%
Weight: 0.61
Supreme Court favors immunity for former official
Forecast: 65%
Weight: 0.05
Supreme Court cases where lower court ruling was reversed, rejected, or remanded
Forecast: 66%
Weight: 0.06
Conservative-majority Supreme Court disrupts status quo
Forecast: 64%
Weight: 0.23