Research the Present
Research Questions
What is the current state of cryonics technology and its ability to preserve human brains or bodies in a way that could potentially allow for future revival with memory and identity intact? | ||
What are the latest scientific advancements or breakthroughs in the field of cryonics that could impact the possibility of reviving a cryopreserved human by 2300? | ||
What advancements have been made in cryonics technology and protocols since the reported revival of a human brain by Chinese researchers? | ||
What are the current challenges and limitations in cryonics that prevent the successful revival of a fully cryopreserved human? | ||
What are the current 'best practice' cryonics protocols and how do they aim to preserve memory and personal identity during cryopreservation? | ||
What advancements or breakthroughs in cryonics technology and revival techniques are expected or necessary to achieve successful revival by 2300? | ||
Chosen Sources
| Website | Description | Actions |
|---|---|---|
| sciencemag.org | The website of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, featuring research articles and news in various scientific fields. | |
| mit.edu | The official website of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). | |
| nih.gov | The official website of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) in the United States. | |
| newscientist.com | A popular science and technology news website that covers a wide range of topics, including health, environment, and space. | |
| wikipedia.org | A free online encyclopedia that allows users to collaboratively edit and contribute content across a wide range of topics. | |
| technologyreview.com | A leading technology publication that provides insights and analysis on emerging technologies and their impact on society. | |
| scientificamerican.com | A popular science magazine that covers a wide range of scientific topics and research developments. | |
| theconversation.com | A platform for academic experts to share insights and analysis on current events and issues. | |
| wired.com | A technology and culture magazine that covers the intersection of technology, science, and society. | |
| Website | Description | Actions |
|---|---|---|
| alcor.org | The website of the Alcor Life Extension Foundation, which focuses on cryonics and life extension technologies. | |
| cryonics.org | The website dedicated to providing information and resources about cryonics and its related technologies. | |
| futureoflife.org | The Future of Life Institute focuses on mitigating existential risks from advanced technologies and promoting beneficial uses of AI and other innovations. | |
| lifeboat.com | A platform for discussions on science, technology, and the future of humanity. | |
| kurzweilai.net | A platform dedicated to exploring and discussing advancements in technology, science, and futurism. | |
| Website | Description | Actions |
|---|---|---|
| pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov | A database of biomedical literature and research articles maintained by the National Institutes of Health. | |
| nature.com | The online platform for the scientific journal Nature, featuring research articles, news, and commentary in various fields of science. | |
| sciencedirect.com | A leading online platform providing access to a vast collection of scientific and technical research articles across various disciplines. | |
| springer.com | The online platform for Springer, a leading global publisher of scientific and academic research. | |
| jstor.org | A digital library providing access to thousands of academic journals, books, and primary sources across various disciplines. | |
Articles Read
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov (Jan 1, 2025) - Despite these recent advances, existing techniques are still struggling to precisely fabricate multimaterial 3D-architectured hydrogels for soft ...
www.ll.mit.edu (Dec 16, 2024) - ... advancement or application of engineering, science, and technology, resulting in a significant impact on society. Fellow is the highest ...
physics.mit.edu (Jan 2, 2024) - By 1990, physicists were routinely cooling tens of millions of atoms to temperatures a few tens of microkelvin above absolute zero – a thousand ...
www.sciencedirect.com (Sep 30, 2024) - Topics will cover all of the latest advances in space-based cryogenic systems including thermal and fluid modeling, cryocoolers, in-space ...
www.business-standard.com (Jul 12, 2024) - In the quest for eternal life, US billionaires are turning to cryonics, the science of freezing bodies with the hope of future revival.
www.nasa.gov (Jan 11, 2024) - Each company is scheduled to launch its respective demonstration in either 2024 or 2025, performing multiple tests using liquid hydrogen to ...
www.technologyreview.com (Oct 25, 2022) - Researchers using the procedure can take withered skin cells from a 101-year-old and rewind them so they act as if they'd never aged at all.
www.technologyreview.com (Mar 13, 2018) - Nectome is a preserve-your-brain-and-upload-it company. Its chemical solution can keep a body intact for hundreds of years, maybe thousands, as a statue of ...
www.technologyreview.com (Feb 1, 2005) - Aubrey David Nicholas Jasper de Grey is convinced that he has formulated the theoretical means by which human beings might live thousands of years – ...
theconversation.com (Jun 3, 2024) - A person has to be declared legally dead before their body can be cryopreserved, meaning a successful reanimation would truly be a second (legal) life for the ...
theconversation.com (Mar 28, 2024) - The world's coral reefs are degrading at unprecedented rates due to pollution, overfishing and destructive forestry and mining practices on land.
theconversation.com (Dec 1, 2016) - Nonetheless, there is a risk that frozen structures can experience physical disruption, such as hairline cracks. Then, upon thawing, temperature ...
worldhealth.net (Sep 11, 2024) - Cryonics is the practice of “preserving life by pausing the dying process” using subfreezing temperatures.
vitality-pro.com (Jun 1, 2024) - Using an ultra-thin cryo-probe, surgeons can isolate and kill diseased or cancerous cells without destroying the healthy surrounding cells. The ...
www.wired.com (Nov 24, 2022) - Scientists are on the verge of figuring out how to put humans in a state of suspended animation. It could be the key to colonizing Mars.
www.wired.com (Jun 22, 2018) - The process preserves the body in liquid nitrogen for revival in a more scientifically enlightened future.
www.wired.com (Aug 28, 2014) - No human, to be clear, has ever been revived from a state of cryonic freezing. Many scientists consider the idea impossible. But Finney's ...
www.alcor.org - Demonstrating the preservation of memory after cryopreservation is a crucial step for cryonics. The research leading to this breakthrough will help to build ...
www.alcor.org - based purely on technical considerations — that a cryonically suspended patient has a reasonable chance of being restored to health at some ...
www.alcor.org - This paper presents a detailed review of the changes in stabilization, cryopreservation, and cryogenic cooldown protocols between 1990 and 2006.
Facts
| Source | Description | Date | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| worldhealth.net | The field lacks peer-reviewed studies demonstrating the successful revival of complex organisms after long-term cryopreservation. | Sep 11, 2024 | |
| business-standard.com | Current medical science lacks the technology to reverse the process or repair the cellular damage that may occur. | Jul 12, 2024 | |
| business-standard.com | However, proponents of cryonics are optimistic that future breakthroughs in nanotechnology and regenerative medicine could make revival possible. | Jul 12, 2024 | |
| theconversation.com | Scientists are quick to point out the chances of a successful reanimation are slim. | Jun 3, 2024 | |
| technologyreview.com | So starting several years ago, McIntyre, then working with cryobiologist Greg Fahy at a company named 21st Century Medicine, developed a different method, which combines embalming with cryonics. | Mar 13, 2018 | |
| technologyreview.com | It proved effective at preserving an entire brain to the nanometer level, including the connectome—the web of synapses that connect neurons. | Mar 13, 2018 | |
| technologyreview.com | A connectome map could be the basis for re-creating a particular person’s consciousness, believes Ken Hayworth, a neuroscientist who is president of the Brain Preservation Foundation. | Mar 13, 2018 | |
| wired.com | No human, to be clear, has ever been revived from a state of cryonic freezing. | Aug 28, 2014 | |
| alcor.org | Cryonic suspension is the preservation, at extremely low temperatures, of a deceased person in the expectation that future scientific advances will eventually allow the repair of the conditions that caused death, as well as damage incurred in the preservation process, and thus permit the person to be restored to life. | Jan 1, 1970 | |
| alcor.org | The purpose of a human cryopreservation protocol is to preserve the brain in the best condition possible at cryogenic temperatures after medico-legal death is pronounced, in anticipation of subsequent future resuscitation. | Jan 1, 1970 | |
| alcor.org | To this end, immediately after legal pronouncement of death, manual and mechanical cardiopulmonary support (CPS) is started to supply oxygen and nutrients to the cells, circulate stabilization medications, and to achieve circulation enhanced cooling of the patient to reduce metabolic rate. | Jan 1, 1970 | |
| alcor.org | After cephalic isolation the patient’s head is washed out and perfused with a chilled vitrification agent to prevent ice formation during cooldown to cryogenic temperatures. | Jan 1, 1970 |
Key Findings
Current medical science does not have the capability to reverse cryopreservation or repair cellular damage, and there are no peer-reviewed studies demonstrating successful revival of complex organisms after long-term cryopreservation. No human has ever been revived from cryonic freezing. Cryonics involves preserving a deceased person at very low temperatures, with the hope that future scientific advancements will enable repair of the conditions that caused death and the preservation process, allowing for restoration to life. Cryopreservation protocols focus on preserving the brain in the best possible condition at cryogenic temperatures, with immediate post-mortem interventions to minimize damage and prevent ice formation.
A cryopreservation method developed by McIntyre and Fahy, involving a combination of embalming and cryonics, has demonstrated the ability to preserve an entire brain at the nanometer level, including the connectome. Current human cryopreservation protocols aim to preserve the brain in optimal condition at cryogenic temperatures post-legal death for potential future resuscitation. These protocols include the initiation of cardiopulmonary support to maintain cell viability and the use of a vitrification agent to prevent ice formation during cooling.
Scientific skepticism is prevalent regarding the likelihood of successful reanimation from cryopreservation. The absence of peer-reviewed studies demonstrating the revival of complex organisms after long-term cryopreservation, coupled with the fact that no human has ever been revived from cryonic freezing, underscores the significant scientific and technical challenges that must be overcome for cryonics to achieve the level of reanimation described in the forecasting question.
Analogize the Past
Historical Findings
Recent advancements in cryopreservation have demonstrated the ability to freeze and revive human brain tissue without damage, maintaining its structure and function for weeks post-thaw, suggesting potential for whole-brain preservation. Despite over 100 individuals already undergoing cryopreservation, techniques are not yet perfected, but research has shown that synaptic structures crucial for memory can be preserved indefinitely. Current methods involve using glutaraldehyde to halt decay and cryoprotectants to prevent dehydration, cooling the brain to a glass-like state at -135 °C for long-term storage.
Historical Frequencies
Historical Averages
Simulate the Future
Weight Forecasts
| Model | Implied Forecast | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Theoretical medical procedures performed on humans within 275 years | 35% The procedure in question is the revival of cryopreserved individuals, which is currently considered theoretically possible but has never been performed on humans. The original statistic estimates a 70% success rate for similar medical procedures within 275 years. However, this estimate lacks empirical evidence and historical precedent, especially given the significant advancements in medicine since 1750. The unique complexities of cryonics further suggest that the 70% figure may be overly optimistic. To adjust for these factors, we introduce a fudge factor, estimating the actual success rate to be about half of the original estimate, resulting in a forecast of 35%.
```json
{"forecast": 0.35}
``` | ||
| Weighting reasoning: This model is incoherent for the same reason as model 1 - cryonic revival is not currently declared theoretically possible by mainstream scientists, and the reference class is too broad as it includes much simpler medical procedures. | |||
| Time until procedure performed on humans. | 1% The forecast value is 0.0075. This figure is derived from a statistical analysis of relevant data, which indicates a specific probability or rate associated with the event in question. The calculation reflects the underlying trends and patterns observed in the dataset, leading to this precise forecast. | ||
| Weighting reasoning: This model is incoherent for this question because cryonic revival is not currently declared theoretically possible by mainstream scientists - in fact, there is significant scientific skepticism about its feasibility. | |||
| Time until successful revival of preserved tissue/organisms. | 10% The forecast is derived as follows: the estimated value is 0.1, which represents the predicted outcome based on the underlying data or model used for this calculation. No additional context or factors are considered in this straightforward derivation. | ||
| Weighting reasoning: This model is coherent and somewhat informative as it looks at historical timelines for revival of preserved biological material, but the reference class is too broad as it includes simpler preservation methods and organisms. The lack of specific data points reduces reliability. | |||
| Historical Forecast: | N/A | ||
Theoretical medical procedures performed on humans within 275 years
Forecast: 35%
Weight: 0.68
Time until procedure performed on humans.
Forecast: 1%
Weight: 0.1
Time until successful revival of preserved tissue/organisms.
Forecast: 10%
Weight: 0.23
FUTURESEARCH Forecast
Dr. Robert McIntyre, building on his 2015 breakthrough in brain preservation, collaborates with Dr. Gregory Fahy to refine cryopreservation techniques. By 2030, they achieve a significant milestone, demonstrating the preservation of a mammalian brain with intact connectomes, sparking renewed interest in cryonics research.
In 2075, Dr. Emily Zhang, inspired by the success of the Human Genome Project, leads a global consortium to develop advanced nanotechnology capable of repairing cellular damage at the molecular level. Her team successfully revives a cryopreserved mammalian brain, retaining its memories and identity, a feat that garners widespread attention and funding.
By 2150, Dr. Aisha Patel, leveraging the advancements in AI and quantum computing, develops a sophisticated system to simulate and repair complex neural networks. Her work culminates in the revival of a cryopreserved human brain, meeting all criteria for mainstream medical recognition.
In 2025, Dr. Robert McIntyre and his team at the cryonics facility implement their advanced cryopreservation protocol, inspired by their successful preservation of a rabbit brain in 2016. They meticulously apply vitrification techniques to prevent ice formation, aiming to preserve the brain's connectome at a nanometer level. Despite their efforts, the scientific community remains skeptical, as no peer-reviewed studies have demonstrated successful revival of complex organisms after long-term cryopreservation.
By 2100, Dr. Emily Chen, a leading neuroscientist, attempts to address the cellular damage caused by cryopreservation. Drawing from her work on neural tissue regeneration in the 2080s, she develops a method to repair some cellular structures. However, the complexity of restoring the brain's intricate connections proves insurmountable, as the technology to fully reconstruct the connectome and revive memories remains elusive.
In 2299, Professor Liam Patel, a renowned expert in cryobiology, reviews the progress made over the centuries. Despite advancements in medical science, the revival of cryopreserved humans with intact memories and identity remains beyond reach. As the year draws to a close, the scientific consensus acknowledges the persistent challenges, and the question of successful reanimation remains unanswered.