futuresearch.ai | Report 3Li1

1
Sources of OpenAI's reported $3.4B ARR on June 12 2024

$590 K seats$

$(50% CI: [470 K, 720 K])$

Growth in active ChatGPT Enterprise seats between April 4 2024 and June 12 2024

Key Parameter	Value	Source
Paid seats of ChatGPT Enterprise in mid Jan 2024 $(N_{Jan 24})$	$150 K$	1
Paid seats of ChatGPT Enterprise on Apr 4, 2024 $(N_{Apr 4})$	$600 K$	1
Adjustment for anomalously high observed growth $(G_{Slowdown})$	$0.6 (50% CI: [0.35, 0.75])$

We estimate growth by extrapolating from two known officially announced data points. ChatGPT Enterprise had

150,000 active seats in mid January 2024
600,000 by April 4[1].

This is a highly anomalous growth rate – the fastest growth enterprise app by number of seats in recent time is Zoom Phone, which doubled over 5 months at the height of the pandemic[2], whereas this shows 4x growth over less than 3. So regression to the mean suggests that it will have been substantially lower during the following months.

However, an April estimate put the portion of Fortune 500 companies using ChatGPT Enterprise at 5%[3], suggesting that market saturation is still far away – the most ubiquitous enterprise tools, such as Salesforce's CRM platform, see Fortune 500 adoption rates of ~80%[4], and ChatGPT is a very general tool that can in principle be useful to any large enterprise. Additionally, since the 600,000 figure was announced, a contract with PwC added 100,000 seats with more to follow[5], suggesting strong continued growth.

Accounting for these considerations, we estimate that daily growth in active Enterprise seats since April 4 has been 60% of the January-April value.

Δ_{Apr 4 - Jun 12} G_{Daily} Δ_{Apr 4 - Jun 12} = N_{Apr 4} \cdot [(G_{Daily})^{Days Apr 4 - Jun 12} - 1] = 1 + [(\frac{N _{Apr 4}}{N _{Jan 12}})^{\frac{1}{Days Jan 12 - Apr 4}} - 1] \cdot G_{Slowdown} = 1 + [(\frac{600 , 000}{150 , 000})^{\frac{1}{82}} - 1] \cdot 0.6 \approx 1.01 = 600, 000 \cdot [1.0 1^{69} - 1] \approx 590, 000

Supporting Evidence

[1]
OpenAI has seen a 4x growth in its enterprise users from 150,000 in January 2024 to 600,000 in April 2024.
cryptoslate.com/chatcpt-reports-600k-enterprise-users-evidencing-demand-for-data-protection/
[2]
The number of Zoom Phone custormers with 10+ employees by 100% from July 2020 to January 2021.
www.searchlogistics.com/learn/statistics/zoom-user-statistics/
[3]
As of April 10, 2024, approximately 5% of the Fortune 500 companies are using ChatGPT Enterprise, according to an analysis of ChatGPT's enterprise customers by Henley Wing Chiu.
bloomberry.com/i-analyzed-all-of-chatgpts-enterprise-customers-heres-what-i-learned/
[4]
80% of Fortune 500 companies depend on Salesforce for optimizing their customer relationships.
routine-automation.com/blog/how-many-companies-use-salesforce/
[5]
The professional services firm PwC holds more than 100,000 ChatGPT Enterprise licenses, with 75,000 licenses for its US employees and 26,000 licenses for its UK employees.
www.techrepublic.com/article/openai-pwc-chatgpt-enterprise-deal/

1
Sources of OpenAI's reported $3.4B ARR on June 12 2024