futuresearch.ai | Report 3Li1

1
Sources of OpenAI's reported $3.4B ARR on June 12 2024

$290 M USD/year$

$(50% CI: [230 M, 360 M])$

ARR from ChatGPT Team as of June 12, 2024

Key Parameter	Value	Source
Monthly fee for a Team subscription $(F_{Teams})$	$$25$	Estimate
Weight for Individual-Team conversion estimate $(W_{Individual})$	$0.5$	Estimate
Weight for Enterprise-Team conversion estimate $(W_{Enterprise})$	$0.5$	Estimate
Conversion from Individual to Team subscribers from a comparable app $(S_{Individual, Teams})$	$\frac{9}{20} (50% CI: [0.25, 0.6])$	1
Conversion from Enterprise to Team subscribers from a comparable app $(S_{Enterprise, Teams})$	$\frac{3.3}{1.4} (50% CI: [1.5, 3])$	2
Number of Plus subscribers 5 months after its launch $(N_{Plus})$	$3.3 M (50% CI: [3.2 M, 3.5 M])$	1.3.1
Number of active Enterprise seats 5 months after its launch $(N_{Enterprise})$	$200 K (50% CI: [180 K, 220 K])$	1.3.2

There are no public data points on ChatGPT Team subscribers. Hence we estimate by drawing from industry comparables. We do this in two ways and weight the results:

Estimate by the typical ratio of individual to team paying subscribers
Estimate by the typical ratio of enterprise to team paying subscribers

Once we have these estimates, we apply them to the number of ChatGPT Plus (individual) subscribers and ChatGPT Enterprise seats at the time when those products were as old as ChatGPT Team is today.

Those values are calculated in further questions. Our estimates are:

Number of ChatGPT Plus users 5 months after Plus was launched as 3.3M[1.3.1]
Number of Enterprise users 5 months after Enterprise was launched as 200,000[1.3.2].

To estimate the ratios, we pick the most similar product for which the ratios are known.

For the ratio of individual/team paying subscribers, we use Canva. At the start of 2024, Canva had 20M individual subscribers, and 9M Teams members[1].
For the ratio of enterprise/team paying subscribers, we look to Zoom, which, at the start of 2021, had 3.26M active Teams seats and 1.41M active Enterprise seats[2].

These tiers were released simultaneously, so we don't need to account for release-date effects.

The final estimate weights these two models equally. Then we multiply by the annualized cost of the Team plan, $25/month.

R_{Team} R_{Team} = 12 \cdot F_{Team} \cdot N_{Team seats} = 12 \cdot F_{Team} \cdot (W_{Individual} \cdot N_{Plus} \cdot S_{Individual, Team} + W_{Enterprise} \cdot N_{Enterprise} \cdot S_{Enterprise, Team}) = 12 \cdot $25 \cdot (0.5 \cdot 3.3 million \cdot \frac{9}{20} + 0.5 \cdot 200, 000 \cdot \frac{3.3}{1.4}) \approx $290 million

Supporting Evidence

[1]
As of May 28, 2024, Canva had 20M paying subscribers for its individual plan, and 9M Teams subscribers.
www.investing.com/news/company-news/canva-share-maintains-price-target-on-enterprise-growth-93CH-3459449/
[2]
As of June 29, 2024, Zoom had 329,000 Business and Business Plus subscribers, and 141,000 Enterprise subscribers.
www.searchlogistics.com/learn/statistics/zoom-user-statistics/
[1.3.1]
FutureSearch's answer toChatGPT Plus paid subscribers 5 months after its launchis
$3.3 M subscribers$
[1.3.2]
FutureSearch's answer toActive seats of ChatGPT Enterprise 5 months after its launchis
$200 K seats$