futuresearch.ai | Report 3Li1

1
Sources of OpenAI's reported $3.4B ARR on June 12 2024

$3.3 M subscribers$

$(50% CI: [3.2 M, 3.5 M])$

ChatGPT Plus paid subscribers 5 months after its launch

Key Parameter	Value	Source
Ratio of ChatGPT Plus subscribers in the US in July 2023 $(R_{US, Global})$	$0.6 (50% CI: [0.58, 0.62])$	1
ChatGPT Plus subscribers in July 2023 $(N_{Plus, US})$	$2 M$	2

To estimate this, we anchor to the closest data point in time, which is from an Andressen-Horowitz report, putting the number of US-based Plus subscribers at 2 million in July 2023[2].

This is conveniently 5 months after ChatGPT Plus launched in Feb 2023, so no time adjustment is needed.

To adjust for users outside the US, we reference Appfigures mobile revenue data, which gives 60% of mobile Plus subscribers as from the US in October 2023[1]. This is the closest datapoint we have to July (Plus was released in February), and the figure aligns well with the average US-global ratio for paid consumer software, as well as with and our estimate for the ratio at a later date, April 2024[1.1.1].

N_{Plus} = N_{Plus, US} \cdot [\frac{1}{R _{US,Global}}] = 2 million \cdot [\frac{1}{0.60}] \approx 3.3 million

Supporting Evidence

[1]
According to Appfigures data, the United States accounts for 59% of ChatGPT's net revenue, followed by Germany, Japan, Great Britain, France, Canada, Brazil, Australia, and India, which account for 2% to 5% of ChatGPT's net revenue.
synthedia.substack.com/p/chatgpt-mobile-app-tops-50m-downloads
[2]
As of March 2024, the AI research organization OpenAI's ChatGPT product has an estimated 3.9 million active ChatGPT Plus subscribers in the United States. This number increased from 2 million active ChatGPT Plus subscribers in the US in July 2023.
backlinko.com/chatgpt-stats
[1.1.1]
FutureSearch's answer toGrowth in ChatGPT Plus subscribers between April 1, 2024 and June 12, 2024is
$920 K subscribers$

1
Sources of OpenAI's reported $3.4B ARR on June 12 2024