futuresearch.ai | Report 3Li1

1
Sources of OpenAI's reported $3.4B ARR on June 12 2024

$1.9 B USD/year$

$(50% CI: [1.8 B, 2 B])$

ARR from ChatGPT Plus as of June 12, 2024

Key Parameter	Value	Source
Monthly ChatGPT Plus subscription cost $(F_{Plus})$	$$20$	1
Ratio of US to global ChatGPT Plus subscribers $(\frac{N _{US}}{N _{Global}})$	$0.57 (50% CI: [0.555, 0.585])$	1.1.2
US ChatGPT Plus subscribers as of April 1, 2024 $(N_{U S, Apr 1})$	$3.9 M$	3
Global ChatGPT Plus subscriber growth between April 1 and June 12, 2024 $(Δ_{Apr 1 - Jun 12})$	$920 K (50% CI: [830 K, 1 M])$	1.1.1

The key data point is the number of ChatGPT Plus US subscribers on April 1, 3.9 million[3].

To estimate the ARR today, we first adjust that number to account for global users, and then for growth since April 1. We estimate the ratio of US to Global ChatGPT subscribers as 57%[1.1.2], and the growth since April 1 to be 920k subscribers[1.1.1].

Then we calculate ARR based on the monthly fee[1].

R_{Plus} = F_{Plus} \cdot 12 \cdot N_{Plus subs, Jun 12} = F_{Plus} \cdot 12 \cdot (\frac{N _{Global}}{N _{US}} \cdot N_{US, Apr 1} + Δ_{Apr 1 - Jun 12}) = $20 \cdot 12 \cdot (\frac{1}{0.57} \cdot 3.9 M + 920, 000) \approx $1.9 B

Supporting Evidence

[1]
Each user has to pay $20 per month to subscribe to the ChatGPT Plus version, which is resulting in significant revenue for OpenAI from mobile Plus subscribers.
nerdynav.com/chatgpt-statistics/
[1.1.2]
FutureSearch's answer toPercent of ChatGPT Plus subscribers from the US at the start of April 2024is
$57 %$
[3]
As of March 2024, the AI research organization OpenAI's ChatGPT product has an estimated 3.9 million active ChatGPT Plus subscribers in the United States. This number increased from 2 million active ChatGPT Plus subscribers in the US in July 2023.
backlinko.com/chatgpt-stats
[1.1.1]
FutureSearch's answer toGrowth in ChatGPT Plus subscribers between April 1, 2024 and June 12, 2024is
$920 K subscribers$

1
Sources of OpenAI's reported $3.4B ARR on June 12 2024